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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 13 at the 49

Buffalo Bills 3 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(2:48) 8-S.Martin punts 41 yards to HOU 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.46 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model