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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 72

Buffalo Bills 3 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(:43) 8-S.Martin punts 59 yards to HOU 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 2-R.Woods pushed ob at HOU 49 for 36 yards (56-J.Solomon).

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.32 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 72, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 30, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model