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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 32

Houston Texans 14 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.27 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 32, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 42, worth -0.17 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model