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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 29

Houston Texans 17 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(11:19) 15-K.Fairbairn 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.56 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 29, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
What Happened
  • 83% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 39, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model