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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 91

Houston Texans 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(12:12) 6-T.Townsend punts 40 yards to HOU 49, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 29-B.Codrington.

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +1.15 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 91, worth -5.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 48, worth -2.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model