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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 49

Buffalo Bills 10 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(4:30) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 0-K.Coleman for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.96 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
KICK -1.15 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model