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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 45

Buffalo Bills 17 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 8-S.Martin punts 33 yards to HOU 12, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.54 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 45, worth -2.32 EP
KICK -0.65 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model