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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 15

Buffalo Bills 17 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(3:21) 2-T.Bass 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.46 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 15, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 25, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model