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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 15 at the 49

Houston Texans 20 – Buffalo Bills 20

What Actually Happened

(:41) 6-T.Townsend punts 46 yards to BUF 3, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-17-K.Boyd.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +0.72 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.61 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.47 EP