4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 97

Buffalo Bills 20 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(:16) 8-S.Martin punts 56 yards to HOU 41, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 2-R.Woods to BUF 46 for 13 yards (26-Ty.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth -0.02 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 97, worth -2.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 53, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model