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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 98

Washington Commanders 7 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(:07) 10-T.Way punts 50 yards to CLE 48, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-J.Proche to WAS 43 for 9 yards (57-N.Bellore).

The Three Options

GO -3.58 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.24 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 98, worth -6.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

PUNT -2.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 53, worth -2.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model