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Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
@
WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Dan Quinn
Sunday 2024-10-06 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

CLE
23.7%
WAS
76.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.180 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • QB edge to WAS: Jayden Daniels (WAS) +0.331 vs Deshaun Watson (CLE) -0.166 EPA/dropback
  • WAS defense: +0.156 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • WAS offense: +0.066 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CLE 19
–
WAS 27
Projected margin: WAS by 8 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

CLE

Jordan Hicks LB Out Ribs
James Hudson T Out Shoulder
Alex Wright DE Out Triceps
Nick Chubb RB Out Knee
Nyheim Miller-Hines RB Out Knee
Jack Conklin T Questionable Hamstring
Michael Dunn G Questionable Illness
David Njoku TE Questionable Ankle
Pierre Strong RB Questionable Hamstring
Jedrick Wills T Questionable Knee

WAS

Noah Brown WR Out Groin
Clelin Ferrell DE Out Knee
Jordan Magee LB Doubtful Knee
Efe Obada DE Doubtful Tibia
Tyler Owens S Questionable Shin
Marcus Mariota QB Questionable Pectoral
Nick Allegretti G Questionable Ankle
Percy Butler S Questionable Groin
Brian Robinson RB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 13
–
WAS 34

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:46 TD WAS (2:46) (No Huddle) 8-B.Robinson left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – WAS 6
  • Q2 13:13 FG CLE (13:13) 7-D.Hopkins 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 3 – WAS 7
  • Q2 08:44 FG WAS (8:44) 3-A.Seibert 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. CLE 3 – WAS 10
  • Q2 03:14 TD WAS (3:14) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 3 – WAS 16
  • Q2 00:42 TD WAS (:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep right to 2-D.Brown for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 3 – WAS 23
  • Q3 12:15 FG CLE (12:15) 7-D.Hopkins 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-B.Whiteheart, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 6 – WAS 24
  • Q3 07:28 TD WAS (7:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-J.McNichols left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – WAS 30
  • Q3 02:38 FG WAS (2:38) 3-A.Seibert 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. CLE 6 – WAS 34
  • Q4 07:06 TD CLE (7:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 88-J.Akins for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 12 – WAS 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 1 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 39%

    (12:56) 27-D.Foreman left end to WAS 47 for no gain (4-F.Luvu).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 19 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (11:13) 10-T.Way punts 42 yards to CLE 20, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-J.Proche to CLE 27 for 7 yards (38-K.Seymour, 57-N.Bellore).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 17 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:02) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 61 yards to WAS 19, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus. PENALTY on CLE-31-M.Ford, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 19.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 6 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (6:15) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to CLE 49, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-O.Zaccheaus to CLE 34 for 15 yards (31-M.Ford).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 2 at the 14
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 96%

    (3:29) (No Huddle) 30-A.Ekeler right end to CLE 4 for 10 yards (37-Da.Bell).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 5 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (1:12) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 65 yards to WAS 2, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-38-T.Brown.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 10 at the 98
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (:07) 10-T.Way punts 50 yards to CLE 48, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-J.Proche to WAS 43 for 9 yards (57-N.Bellore).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 19 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 74%

    (13:13) 7-D.Hopkins 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 7 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (8:44) 3-A.Seibert 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (6:54) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to WAS 26, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 3 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 57%

    (4:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles right end pushed ob at CLE 6 for 34 yards (12-R.McLeod). PENALTY on CLE-21-D.Ward, Defensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at CLE 6.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 14 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:51) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 57 yards to WAS 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-O.Zaccheaus to WAS 38 for 18 yards (12-R.McLeod, 57-I.McGuire).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 27%

    (:09) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 50 yards to WAS 2, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-31-M.Ford.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 13 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 96%

    (12:15) 7-D.Hopkins 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-B.Whiteheart, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 4 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 96%

    (2:38) 3-A.Seibert 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 55%

    (:20) (No Huddle) 34-J.Ford up the middle to WAS 39 for 2 yards (95-J.Newton).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 7 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:03) 10-T.Way punts 53 yards to CLE 36, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-J.Proche to CLE 46 for 10 yards (39-J.Reaves).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 7 at the 10
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (7:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 88-J.Akins for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 14 at the 47 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 39%

    (2:36) 10-T.Way punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.