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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 9

Washington Commanders 7 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(8:44) 3-A.Seibert 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.27 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 9, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP