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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 40

Washington Commanders 10 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(4:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles right end pushed ob at CLE 6 for 34 yards (12-R.McLeod). PENALTY on CLE-21-D.Ward, Defensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at CLE 6.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.56 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 40, worth -1.68 EP
KICK -0.00 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model