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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 52

Cleveland Browns 3 – Washington Commanders 24

What Actually Happened

(:09) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 50 yards to WAS 2, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-31-M.Ford.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +0.44 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 52, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 27% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.94 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.43 EP