Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 19 at the 62

Washington Commanders 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

(11:13) 10-T.Way punts 42 yards to CLE 20, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-J.Proche to CLE 27 for 7 yards (38-K.Seymour, 57-N.Bellore).

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.39 EP
74% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 62, worth -3.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model