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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 12

Washington Commanders 31 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(2:38) 3-A.Seibert 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.39 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 12, worth +0.38 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 22, worth -0.39 EP
PUNT +0.47 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP