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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Cleveland Browns
4th & 1 at the 41
Cleveland Browns 6 – Washington Commanders 34
What Actually Happened
(:20) (No Huddle) 34-J.Ford up the middle to WAS 39 for 2 yards (95-J.Newton).
The Three Options
GO
+1.31 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.95 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 41, worth -2.19 EP
KICK
-0.50 EP
- 55% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
- 45% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT
-0.53 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
