Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 89

Washington Commanders 34 – Cleveland Browns 6

(12:03) 10-T.Way punts 53 yards to CLE 36, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-J.Proche to CLE 46 for 10 yards (39-J.Reaves).

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +1.05 EP
56% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 89, worth -4.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model