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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 10

Cleveland Browns 6 – Washington Commanders 34

What Actually Happened

(7:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 88-J.Akins for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.89 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 10, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model