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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 14 at the 47

Washington Commanders 34 – Cleveland Browns 13

What Actually Happened

(2:36) 10-T.Way punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +2.56 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 47, worth -1.86 EP
KICK -0.47 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 13, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model