4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 17 at the 72

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(10:08) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to DEN 12, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 19-M.Mims to 50 for 38 yards (86-J.Shenker).

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.24 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 72, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 30, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model