4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
LV Away

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Antonio Pierce
@
DEN Home

Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2024-10-06 · 16:05 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 36.0

Win Probability

LV
55.1%
DEN
44.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN offense: -0.137 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • QB edge to LV: Bo Nix (DEN) -0.266 vs Gardner Minshew (LV) -0.018 EPA/dropback
  • DEN defense: -0.063 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LV 21
–
DEN 18
Projected margin: LV by 3 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

LV

Davante Adams WR Out Hamstring
Luke Masterson LB Out Knee
Michael Mayer TE Out Not injury related - personal matter
Thayer Munford T Out Knee
Decamerion Richardson CB Out Hamstring
Zamir White RB Out Groin
Trey Taylor S Out Knee
Maxx Crosby DE Questionable Ankle
Divine Deablo LB Questionable Oblique
Kana'i Mauga LB Questionable Calf
Tyreik McAllister RB Questionable Shoulder
Dylan Parham G Questionable Achilles

DEN

Tyler Badie RB Out Back

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 18
–
DEN 34

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:08 TD LV (13:08) 15-G.Minshew pass deep left to 89-B.Bowers for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 6 – DEN 0
  • Q1 01:30 FG LV (1:30) 2-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 10 – DEN 0
  • Q2 12:27 FG DEN (12:27) 3-W.Lutz 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. LV 10 – DEN 3
  • Q2 08:59 TD DEN (8:59) 15-G.Minshew pass short left intended for 89-B.Bowers INTERCEPTED by 2-P.Surtain at DEN 0. 2-P.Surtain for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 10 – DEN 9
  • Q2 00:00 FG DEN (:00) 3-W.Lutz 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. Penalty on LV-34-T.Harper, Defensive Offside, declined. LV 10 – DEN 13
  • Q3 07:01 TD DEN (7:01) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 38-J.McLaughlin for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. LV 10 – DEN 19
  • Q4 10:14 TD DEN (10:14) 10-B.Nix up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN-60-L.Wattenberg was injured during the play. LV 10 – DEN 26
  • Q4 08:19 TD DEN (8:19) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 11-J.Reynolds for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN [49-C.Snowden]. Penalty on LV-45-T.Eichenberg, Defensive Holding, declined. Penalty on LV-0-J.Bennett, Defensive Holding, declined. LV 10 – DEN 33
  • Q4 04:06 TD LV (4:06) (No Huddle) 8-A.Abdullah up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DEN-98-J.Franklin-Myers, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 1 yard, enforced between downs. LV 16 – DEN 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (11:02) 79-M.Peart reported in as eligible. 33-J.Williams left tackle to DEN 42 for 8 yards (45-T.Eichenberg; 7-T.Moehrig).

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 5 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 24%

    (9:39) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to LV 10, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 81-A.Bachman.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 10 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 90%

    (1:30) 2-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (7:12) 6-A.Cole punts 61 yards to DEN 7, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 2 at the 85
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (5:43) 9-R.Dixon punts 35 yards to 50, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 2 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 50%

    (4:07) 6-A.Cole punts 39 yards to DEN 3, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by LV-8-A.Abdullah.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 12 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:40) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to LV 13, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 8-A.Abdullah.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 6 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (:34) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to DEN 36, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 13 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (13:37) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to LV 24, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 17 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (10:08) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to DEN 12, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 19-M.Mims to 50 for 38 yards (86-J.Shenker).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 3 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 42%

    (1:39) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 16 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (:02) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to DEN 26, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 19-M.Mims ran ob at DEN 42 for 16 yards (84-H.Bryant).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 44 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 45%

    (3:10) 9-R.Dixon punts 34 yards to LV 10, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 81-A.Bachman.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 17 at the 85 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 29%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass incomplete deep middle to 19-D.Turner.