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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 45

Denver Broncos 20 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(1:39) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.10 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 45, worth -2.18 EP
KICK -0.79 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP