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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 44

Denver Broncos 34 – Las Vegas Raiders 18

What Actually Happened

(3:10) 9-R.Dixon punts 34 yards to LV 10, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 81-A.Bachman.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +2.70 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 44, worth -1.62 EP
KICK -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model