Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 17 at the 85

Las Vegas Raiders 18 – Denver Broncos 34

(2:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass incomplete deep middle to 19-D.Turner.

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP

What Happened

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.14 EP
71% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 85, worth -3.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.04 EP