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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 22

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(1:30) 2-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.91 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 22, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 32, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model