Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 19 at the 66

New York Jets 0 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 6-T.Morstead punts 56 yards to MIN 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 4-B.Powell ran ob at MIN 22 for 12 yards (52-S.Eguavoen). PENALTY on MIN-20-Jy.Ward, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 10.

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.65 EP
76% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 66, worth -3.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model