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New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
@
MIN Home

Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
Sunday 2024-10-06 · 09:30 Tottenham Stadium, London GB 🌧 Rain Spread 2.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

NYJ
40.4%
MIN
59.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.163 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • NYJ defense: -0.156 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Sam Darnold (MIN): +0.160 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIN offense: +0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • NYJ crossing 5 time zone(s)

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 22
–
MIN 25
Projected margin: MIN by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

NYJ

Morgan Moses T Out Knee
Leki Fotu DT Doubtful Hamstring
C.J. Mosley LB Doubtful Toe

MIN

T.J. Hockenson TE Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 17
–
MIN 23

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:45 FG MIN (7:45) 16-W.Reichard 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. NYJ 0 – MIN 3
  • Q1 02:30 TD MIN (2:30) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right intended for 5-G.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 43-A.Van Ginkel at MIN 37. 43-A.Van Ginkel for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – MIN 9
  • Q2 04:01 TD MIN (4:01) 30-C.Ham left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – MIN 16
  • Q2 00:42 TD NYJ (:42) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 10-A.Lazard for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN [43-A.Van Ginkel]. NYJ 6 – MIN 17
  • Q3 00:53 FG NYJ (:53) 9-G.Zuerlein 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead. ** Injury Update: MIN-0-I.Pace has returned to the game. NYJ 10 – MIN 17
  • Q4 12:12 FG MIN (12:12) 16-W.Reichard 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. NYJ 10 – MIN 20
  • Q4 06:10 TD NYJ (6:10) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 5-G.Wilson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 16 – MIN 20
  • Q4 03:11 FG MIN (3:11) 16-W.Reichard 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. NYJ 17 – MIN 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (13:34) 6-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to MIN 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 14 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 65%

    (7:45) 16-W.Reichard 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (6:24) 6-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to MIN 22, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-19-I.Charles.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 2 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 72%

    (12:20) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep left to 3-J.Addison.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 26
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 85%

    (8:49) (Shotgun) 0-B.Allen up the middle to MIN 26 for no gain (15-D.Turner; 51-B.Cashman).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 19 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (2:00) 6-T.Morstead punts 56 yards to MIN 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 4-B.Powell ran ob at MIN 22 for 12 yards (52-S.Eguavoen). PENALTY on MIN-20-Jy.Ward, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 10.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 11 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:36) 17-R.Wright punts 58 yards to NYJ 38, Center-42-A.DePaola. 82-X.Gipson pushed ob at MIN 31 for 31 yards (26-Th.Jackson).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:29) 17-R.Wright punts 43 yards to NYJ 25, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson. PENALTY on MIN-21-A.Evans, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 25.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (11:18) 6-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 7 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 39%

    (7:51) 17-R.Wright punts 43 yards to NYJ 3, impetus ends at NYJ 1, Center-42-A.DePaola. 82-X.Gipson pushed ob at NYJ 3 for no gain (20-Jy.Ward, 42-A.DePaola).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 95%

    (:53) 9-G.Zuerlein 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead. ** Injury Update: MIN-0-I.Pace has returned to the game.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 10 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 39%

    (14:50) 17-R.Wright punts 39 yards to NYJ 7, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-54-K.Grugier-Hill.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:11) 6-T.Morstead punts 39 yards to NYJ 43, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 4-B.Powell to NYJ 37 for 6 yards (21-A.Davis).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 8 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 68%

    (12:12) 16-W.Reichard 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:52) 6-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to MIN 27, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 4-B.Powell to MIN 25 for -2 yards (37-Q.Stiggers). PENALTY on MIN-15-D.Turner, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 27.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 7 at the 23 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 89%

    (3:11) 16-W.Reichard 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.