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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 96

Minnesota Vikings 17 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(1:36) 17-R.Wright punts 58 yards to NYJ 38, Center-42-A.DePaola. 82-X.Gipson pushed ob at MIN 31 for 31 yards (26-Th.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -3.38 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.77 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 96, worth -5.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

PUNT -2.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 53, worth -2.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model