Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 68

Minnesota Vikings 17 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(13:29) 17-R.Wright punts 43 yards to NYJ 25, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson. PENALTY on MIN-21-A.Evans, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 25.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.37 EP
62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 68, worth -3.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model