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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 55

New York Jets 7 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(11:18) 6-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.75 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 55, worth -3.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 16, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model