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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 14

New York Jets 7 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(:53) 9-G.Zuerlein 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead. ** Injury Update: MIN-0-I.Pace has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.57 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 14, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model