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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 46

Minnesota Vikings 17 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(14:50) 17-R.Wright punts 39 yards to NYJ 7, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-54-K.Grugier-Hill.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.58 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 46, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -0.91 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 13, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model