Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 96

New York Jets 10 – Minnesota Vikings 17

(13:11) 6-T.Morstead punts 39 yards to NYJ 43, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 4-B.Powell to NYJ 37 for 6 yards (21-A.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -3.83 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.59 EP
68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 96, worth -5.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model