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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 35

Minnesota Vikings 17 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(12:12) 16-W.Reichard 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.23 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 35, worth -1.56 EP
KICK +0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 45, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model