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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 14 at the 36

Minnesota Vikings 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(7:45) 16-W.Reichard 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.76 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 36, worth -1.49 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 46, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model