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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 23

Minnesota Vikings 20 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(3:11) 16-W.Reichard 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.40 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 23, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 33, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model