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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 66

New York Jets 0 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(6:24) 6-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to MIN 22, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-19-I.Charles.

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.61 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 66, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 24, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model