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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 16

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(11:09) 9-G.Zuerlein 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.31 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 16, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model