Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- BUF offense: +0.122 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- NYJ defense: -0.193 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- NYJ offense: -0.131 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- Josh Allen (BUF): +0.127 EPA/dropback in prior starts
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 6
BUF
NYJ
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 11:09 FG NYJ (11:09) 9-G.Zuerlein 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead. BUF 0 – NYJ 3
- Q1 06:16 TD BUF (6:16) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – NYJ 3
- Q1 02:06 TD NYJ (2:06) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 5-G.Wilson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 7 – NYJ 9
- Q2 06:58 TD BUF (6:58) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 13-M.Hollins for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 13 – NYJ 10
- Q2 00:27 TD BUF (:27) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 19 – NYJ 10
- Q2 00:08 TD NYJ (:08) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 10-A.Lazard for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 20 – NYJ 16
- Q3 06:17 FG NYJ (6:17) 9-G.Zuerlein 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead. BUF 20 – NYJ 20
- Q4 03:46 FG BUF (3:46) 2-T.Bass 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. PENALTY on NYJ-54-J.Kinlaw, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. BUF 23 – NYJ 20
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 94%
(11:09) 9-G.Zuerlein 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
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Q1 BUF 4th & 2 at the 62Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EPp(convert) 61%
(:32) 8-S.Martin punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 14 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(12:14) 6-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to BUF 20, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 29-B.Codrington. PENALTY on BUF-5-K.Elam, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 20.
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Q3 BUF 4th & 10 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 78%
(11:11) 2-T.Bass 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
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Q3 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 3Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%
(6:17) 9-G.Zuerlein 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
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Q3 BUF 4th & 6 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(4:33) 8-S.Martin punts 40 yards to NYJ 26, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.
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Q3 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 14Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 95%
(:59) 9-G.Zuerlein 32 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
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Q4 BUF 4th & 15 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(14:19) 8-S.Martin punts 57 yards to NYJ 26, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 34 for 8 yards (85-Q.Morris).
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 85%
(9:47) 9-G.Zuerlein 43 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
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Q4 BUF 4th & 3 at the 3 late-gameChose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EPp(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%
(3:46) 2-T.Bass 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. PENALTY on NYJ-54-J.Kinlaw, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.