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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 29

Buffalo Bills 20 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(11:11) 2-T.Bass 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.69 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 29, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 39, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model