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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 3

New York Jets 17 – Buffalo Bills 20

What Actually Happened

(6:17) 9-G.Zuerlein 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +3.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.14 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 3, worth +0.81 EP
KICK +2.17 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.19 EP
PUNT +0.55 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP