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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 66

Buffalo Bills 20 – New York Jets 20

What Actually Happened

(4:33) 8-S.Martin punts 40 yards to NYJ 26, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.57 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 66, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 24, worth -1.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model