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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 25

New York Jets 20 – Buffalo Bills 20

What Actually Happened

(9:47) 9-G.Zuerlein 43 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.84 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 35, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model