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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 3

Buffalo Bills 20 – New York Jets 20

What Actually Happened

(3:46) 2-T.Bass 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. PENALTY on NYJ-54-J.Kinlaw, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +2.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.83 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 3, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP