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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 62

Buffalo Bills 7 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(:32) 8-S.Martin punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.78 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 62, worth -3.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 21, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP