Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 71

New York Giants 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

(12:48) 38-M.Haack punts 55 yards to CIN 16, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 15-C.Jones to CIN 30 for 14 yards (59-C.Kreiter; 25-D.Miller).

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.01 EP
60% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 71, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model