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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
@
NYG Home

New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
Sunday 2024-10-13 · 20:20 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -4.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

CIN
55.1%
NYG
44.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to CIN: Daniel Jones (NYG) -0.168 vs Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.174 EPA/dropback
  • CIN offense: +0.079 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • NYG offense: -0.050 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • CIN defense: +0.102 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 23
–
NYG 21
Projected margin: CIN by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

CIN

D.J. Ivey CB Doubtful Knee
Mike Hilton CB Questionable Knee
Chase Brown RB Questionable Quadricep

NYG

Malik Nabers WR Out Concussion
Kayvon Thibodeaux LB Out Wrist
Bryce Ford-Wheaton WR Questionable Shoulder
Jamie Gillan P Questionable Left Hamstring
Devin Singletary RB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 17
–
NYG 7

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:41 TD CIN (11:41) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow scrambles right end for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – NYG 0
  • Q3 05:52 TD NYG (5:52) 29-T.Tracy left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 7 – NYG 6
  • Q3 00:45 FG CIN (:45) 2-E.McPherson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. CIN 10 – NYG 7
  • Q4 01:58 TD CIN (1:58) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown up the middle for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 16 – NYG 7

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 4 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 28%

    (10:04) 38-M.Haack punts 47 yards to CIN 6, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 15-C.Jones pushed ob at CIN 18 for 12 yards (59-C.Kreiter). PENALTY on CIN-45-M.Njongmeta, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at CIN 6.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 1 at the 88
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 75%

    (8:25) 8-R.Rehkow punts 55 yards to NYG 33, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 87-I.Smith-Marsette to NYG 33 for no gain (26-T.Anderson).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 7 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 44%

    (15:00) 8-R.Rehkow punts 32 yards to NYG 14, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 87-I.Smith-Marsette.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 8 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (12:48) 38-M.Haack punts 55 yards to CIN 16, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 15-C.Jones to CIN 30 for 14 yards (59-C.Kreiter; 25-D.Miller).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 11 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (11:11) 8-R.Rehkow punts 55 yards to NYG 16, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 87-I.Smith-Marsette to NYG 17 for 1 yard (26-T.Anderson).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (6:25) 38-M.Haack punts 43 yards to CIN 12, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (3:25) 8-R.Rehkow punts 46 yards to NYG 9, Center-48-C.Adomitis, downed by CIN-33-D.Anthony.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 7 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (2:00) 38-M.Haack punts 42 yards to CIN 46, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 15-C.Jones to CIN 45 for -1 yards (44-N.McCloud).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 12 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:29) 8-R.Rehkow punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Touchback.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62%

    (13:56) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 17-W.Robinson (21-M.Hilton).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 2 at the 60
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61%

    (10:11) (Shotgun) 29-T.Tracy right end to NYG 44 for 4 yards (24-V.Bell; 94-S.Hubbard).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 1 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 71%

    (7:29) 29-T.Tracy left tackle to CIN 30 for 5 yards (58-J.Ossai).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 19 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 93%

    (:45) 2-E.McPherson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 1 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 44%

    (13:30) 8-D.Jones right guard to CIN 45 for 1 yard (92-B.Hill).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 84%

    (10:32) 34-G.Joseph 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-38-M.Haack.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 10 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 50%

    (8:13) 8-R.Rehkow punts 33 yards to NYG 11, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 87-I.Smith-Marsette.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 2 at the 36 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 69%

    (3:05) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 86-D.Slayton (20-D.Turner).