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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 55

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(3:25) 8-R.Rehkow punts 46 yards to NYG 9, Center-48-C.Adomitis, downed by CIN-33-D.Anthony.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.34 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 55, worth -2.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 16, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model